Центр анализа стратегий и технологий (Центр АСТ) подготовил аналитический доклад «Государственные программы вооружения Российской Федерации: проблемы исполнения и потенциал оптимизации» (текст в PDF находится здесь). Доклад посвящен проблемам реализации действующей в России Государственной программы вооружения на 2011-2020 годы, а также предложениям по оптимизации разрабатываемой в настоящее время следующей Государственной программы вооружения на 2016-2025 годы.
Во вводной части доклада говорится, что в настоящее время Россия столкнулась с целой серией фундаментальных геополитических, политических, экономических и военных вызовов. Большинство из этих вызовов не предусматривались реализуемыми ранее сценариями развития, или, по крайней мере, считались относительно маловероятными. Это ставит вопрос о качестве долгосрочного планирования государственного и оборонного строительства.
Угрозы и риски, возникшие после начала гражданской войны на Украине, резкое обострение отношений с США и рядом европейских стран, ухудшение геополитической обстановки на западных рубежах России фактически привели к возрождению ситуации холодной войны. Вырисовывается перспектива длительного и всестороннего противостояния с наиболее развитыми странами мира, причем противостояния с усилением роли военных аспектов, а выражаясь еще более прямо – с опорой на военный потенциал.
В этих условиях возрастает значение военных факторов в обеспечении безопасности России, прежде всего, повышение мощи Вооруженных Сил страны. Реализуемая в настоящее время десятилетняя Государственная программа вооружения на период 2011-2020 гг. представляет собой один из ключевых элементов этой деятельности. Кроме того, в соответствии с установленными еще в советское время нормативами, в развитие этой программы была начата разработка новой десятилетней Государственной программы вооружения на 2016-2025 гг., хотя в настоящее время ввиду осложнения экономической ситуации в стране не исключается перенос срока начала ее реализации на более поздний период.
И где доклад?
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